The process of designing complex systems to meet specific stakeholder
needs is a challenge in itself, but the real world ups the ante even
further because it is constantly changing.
Although
traditional systems engineering approaches often assume one fixed
context, a real system is likely to encounter multiple contexts
throughout its lifespan. At the MIT Systems Engineering Advancement
Research Initiative (SEAri), researchers have observed that systems are
fielded in a period of time—or “epoch”—in which a system’s needs and
context are relatively fixed. But then a change in political, economic,
resource, or market factors—or even a security threat—triggers a new
epoch.
This view of systems reflects the uncertain and
dynamic world in which we live. While many traditionally designed
systems may perform well initially, they can prove ill-equipped to adapt
to new stakeholder needs or to seize opportunities as the world changes
around them. They may also develop unexpected vulnerabilities.
For
example, military systems designed for air-based conflicts may become
useless when the conflict moves to a ground-based environment. A
well-designed construction vehicle may prove unaffordable when more
stringent emissions standards make upgrades necessary. The world is
filled with such examples, and while not all systems can be made
valuable for all circumstances, there are design strategies that can
make some systems more changeable or versatile. The key to better
designs for dynamic relevance, according to SEAri researchers, is
epoch-based thinking.
At SEAri’s annual research
summit, held in October 2009, SEAri researchers and invited attendees
discussed the critical need for addressing epoch shifts that disrupt
system value delivery. In addition, research staff and graduate students
shared progress on new methods to respond to this challenge.
SEAri
research scientist Adam Ross describes epochbased thinking as “a tool
to support systems leaders in anticipating and assessing impacts of
possible future
shifts in policy, resources, technologies,
leadership, markets, and stakeholder needs.” According to Ross, “we have
been making significant progress in developing advanced methods to
permit more effective evaluation of system performance across such
shifts in contexts and needs, leading to formulation of strategies for
designing and evolving complex systems that are appropriately resilient
and/or changeable.” The approach has its origins in his prior doctoral
research conducted in MIT’s Engineering Systems Division and has been
evolved over several years and follow-on theses.
“Epoch-based
thinking has become critically important for the engineering of complex
systems and also for architecting enterprises that are capable of
thriving in a
dynamic world,” said SEAri director and research
scientist Donna Rhodes. “While we cannot predict the future, we can make
better decisions about complex systems and enterprises through formal
approaches in order to anticipate possible futures and responsive
strategies.”
The SEAri group is currently working on
parametric model-based approaches as well as “back-of-the envelope” (or
concept-level) approaches for epoch-based analysis. A number of recent
master’s and doctoral theses have also furthered the epoch-based methods
using computational approaches. And, SDM student Kevin Koo has recently
been working with SEAri to research the application of epoch-based
thinking to a defense system-of-systems application. Koo is one of five
SDM students SEAri researchers are presently supervising on thesis
research that will impact systems practice in industry and government.
To
foster epoch-based thinking, in July 2010, SEAri will offer a two-day
short course—Epoch-Based Thinking: Designing Complex Systems for an
Uncertain World—which is open to interested professionals through the
MIT Professional Education Programs. The course will engage participants
in examining the challenges and motivations faced by systems leaders
and will teach how these new methods can be applied to designing and
evolving complex systems and enterprises.
More information on SEAri and its research is available at seari.mit.edu.
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